Renisha Chainani, head of research at Augmont
Gold extended its four-week losing streak, down nearly 30% from its January 2026 all-time high of $5,597, pressured by hawkish Fed Chair Warsh, PCE inflation at 4.1%, and three anticipated rate hikes. US-Iran tensions briefly lifted safe-haven demand. Silver fell nearly 10% to $55.7. Key gold support sits at $3,950–$4,000.
Sentiment, Investment Demand & ETF Flows
Financial market sentiment stayed broadly risk-off through most of the week, as a sharp tech-led global equity selloff added pressure on gold — portfolio managers sold profitable bullion positions to offset losses elsewhere, a classic de-risking move. Gold has now declined for four consecutive weeks, its longest losing streak since August 2023, and has retreated nearly 30% from its January 2026 all-time high of $5,597 per ounce. On the ETF side, early signs of stabilization emerged after weeks of persistent outflows. Gold-backed ETFs recorded net outflows of 16 metric tonnes in May 2026 and continued losing ground into early June, but registered their strongest weekly net inflows since mid-April during the week under review, totaling approximately $1.1 billion. While the inflow rebound is encouraging, a structural overhang remains — Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper flagged around 298 tonnes of ETF gold held at a loss below $4,050, representing potential near-term selling pressure on any recovery attempt. Gold’s net speculative long positions on COMEX edged up by 91 contracts to 113,010 in the week ended June 23, indicating positioning has not yet fully unwound.
Geopolitical Risk — US-Iran Tensions & Strait of Hormuz
Last week delivered another turbulent chapter for precious metals, with gold and silver navigating a difficult mix of renewed geopolitical risk, a persistently hawkish Federal Reserve, and a firming US dollar. The key early-week driver was fresh escalation between the US and Iran. Over the preceding weekend, Iran launched missiles and drones at US military installations in Kuwait and Bahrain, prompting swift American retaliatory strikes. The exchange briefly stoked safe-haven demand but also amplified inflation fears, as oil prices rose on concerns over shipping disruptions through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. Despite the initial flight to safety, gold failed to hold its ground — rising crude prices crossing $70 per barrel intraday shifted market attention firmly toward Federal Reserve policy and its inflationary implications.
Federal Reserve & Macroeconomic Data
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh continued to dominate the market narrative, firmly reiterating the central bank’s commitment to price stability throughout the week. His hawkish tone — already well-established following the June FOMC meeting — continued to weigh on asset classes. May’s PCE inflation print came in at 4.1% year-on-year, moving above the 4.0% threshold for the first time in three years, driven largely by energy price pass-throughs from the Strait of Hormuz situation. Released on Thursday, the data initially pushed gold sharply below the key psychological $4,000 per ounce level mid-week. However, since the print came in broadly in line with analyst estimates, some relief emerged toward Friday’s close, allowing bullion to recover modestly to around $4,040. Markets now price in three Federal Reserve rate hikes for 2026, with a September hike probability of approximately 62% and December at around 80%, per the CME FedWatch Tool. This hawkish repricing remains the single largest headwind facing non-yielding precious metals.
Silver — Industrial Demand & Gold-Silver Ratio
Silver endured a particularly difficult week, shedding nearly 10% as it disproportionately absorbed the impact of hawkish Fed repricing and risk-off sentiment. COMEX Silver Futures closed near $58.87 per ounce, well below the June 17 high of $69.92. MCX Silver Futures fell approximately 4.83% for the week to around ₹2,42,500 per kg — a comparatively contained decline, reflecting USDINR hedging and import duty effects. The gold-silver ratio widened sharply as silver underperformed gold, consistent with periods of heightened risk aversion where silver’s industrial character makes it more sensitive to global growth expectations. Silver’s longer-term structural story — grounded in sustained demand from solar panels and EV batteries tied to the global energy transition — remains intact. However, near-term price direction is being driven by monetary policy dynamics and financial market sentiment rather than physical demand fundamentals.
Outlook
Looking ahead, precious metals face a near-term environment where hawkish forces remain firmly in charge. Key data releases — particularly the US non-farm payrolls report and ISM Manufacturing PMI — will be closely tracked as markets recalibrate September rate hike probabilities. A meaningful cooling in labor market conditions or a softer-than-expected inflation reading could provide relief to gold and potentially open up the $4,100–$4,150 resistance zone. Conversely, a strong jobs print would likely push gold back toward testing $4,000 support. A lasting US-Iran peace resolution — with talks currently resuming in Doha — remains the key wildcard that could structurally ease oil-driven inflation fears and, in turn, reduce pressure for further Fed tightening.
Near-term COMEX gold support sits at $3,950–$4,000; a break below this level could open a move toward $3,600, while prices are expected to face resistance at $4,250. Silver found support near $55 last week after breaking its prior support zone of $60–61. A breach of $55 would expose the next downside target near $50.