The annual ritual that is the Victory Day Parade in Moscow serves a dual purpose. It reminds Russia’s citizenry and the Kremlin’s audience across the former Soviet Union of the glorious past. The muscle flexing on May 9 each year benchmarks Russia’s geopolitical fortunes.

Last year on the 80th anniversary of the Soviet triumph over Nazi Germany, Russian President Vladimir Putin was flanked by foreign dignitaries from far and wide: Chinese President Xi Jinping, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, Serbia’s Aleksandar Vucic, Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt and Mahmoud Abbas, the head of the Palestinian Authority.

This year, the lineup was much less impressive. Leaders from Belarus, Kazakhstan, Laos, Malaysia and Uzbekistan attended – with Republika Srpska, Abkhazia and South Ossetia for some added flavour – but no heavy hitters like India or China.

The talk of Russia as a linchpin of a new multipolar world order rings a tad hollow today, not least because no heavy equipment was marched through during the parade out of fear of Ukrainian drone strikes. On top of it, United States President Donald Trump claimed credit for a three-day ceasefire between Moscow and Kyiv.

The relatively dull affair that was this year’s parade speaks volumes about Russia’s current state. On paper, everything is going just fine. Trump has not wholly abandoned the idea of a deal to freeze the war in Ukraine, even at the cost of major concessions by Kyiv. The current US National Security Strategy calls for “strategic stability” with Russia while blasting Europe’s “woke” policies.

The inconclusive war against Iran, meanwhile, has exposed the limits of US military might. Oil prices have jumped, filling Russia’s coffers and improving its fiscal balance. On top of it, Trump has removed sanctions on some Russian oil to increase the global supply. Meanwhile, the Europeans are signalling they want to talk to Moscow.

In reality, the mood is gloomy. The Russian war effort in Ukraine continues to be stalled no matter how much money, materiel and human lives the Kremlin throws into the meat grinder that is the so-called special military operation (SVO). Ukrainian drones have hit deep inside the Russian homeland with even Red Square apparently not being immune to aerial attack.

Trump has lost interest in wooing Putin. With Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban gone, the European Union has consolidated ranks. In Russia itself, economic growth has plummeted from 4 percent in 2024 to a projection of just over 1 percent this year.

The prospects for long-term development, productivity growth and technological innovation are lacklustre. There are modest signs of discontent within the Russian elite. Even Putin’s sky-high popularity ratings are slightly down, according to pollsters.

The stifling of the mobile internet in Moscow and other big cities has been met with dismay. Russians could be excused for puzzling over how the SVO, sold as a glorious repeat of the 1941-1945 Great Patriotic War, has gone on longer than the latter with no end in sight. It is no wonder Putin felt compelled to say on Saturday that “the matter” is coming to an end.

While its resources are focused on Ukraine, Russia is on the back foot in what it still calls its “near abroad” too. The past week showed that Europe is gaining momentum there.

On Monday, Armenia hosted the annual summit of the European Political Community (EPC), where European leaders gathered. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was in attendance too. Once Moscow’s loyal client and member of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation and Eurasian Economic Union, Yerevan is now strengthening ties with the West.

Even if the EPC is dismissed as a pan-European talking shop – or maybe a transatlantic one, given that Mark Carney, the Canadian prime minister, came as well – observers cannot ignore the fact that it was followed by the first EU-Armenia summit.  The high-profile meeting signalled in no ambiguous terms that Yerevan sees its future in the EU. Strategically, it is looking at joining the trio of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia.

The EU is reciprocating: The summit discussed up to 2.5 billion euros ($2.95bn) in investment in Armenia; cooperation on energy, transport and digital infrastructure; and visa liberalisation.

In parallel, both Armenia and Azerbaijan are courting the Trump administration. The two countries have welcomed the US as a peacebroker as they move closer to normalising ties. In August at the White House, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev signed a joint declaration pledging to seek peace.

In February, JD Vance became the first sitting US vice president to visit Yerevan and then hopped over to Baku. Armenians and Azeris are negotiating the opening of the Zangezur corridor running between Azerbaijan proper and its exclave Nakhchivan (from where the Aliyev family hails). The project has a name – Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity.

In short, the US has scored a couple of points in Russia’s back yard with the help of Pashinyan and Aliyev. Moscow is watching from the sidelines as a former satellite drifts away from its embrace. And the EU but also Turkiye are to benefit because Armenia’s opening and interconnection with its neighbours favours their pro-integration agenda.

Of course, this does not mean that Armenia could simply jump ship from Russia to the West. Moscow retains stakes in the Armenian economy and, therefore, political leverage.

This will be put on display in the June general election, which will pit Pashinyan’s Civil Contract against the Armenia Alliance of former President Robert Kocharyan and Strong Armenia associated with the Russian-Armenian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan. Both Kocharyan and Karapetyan have strong connections to Moscow.

Public opinion is in favour of diversifying relations but not a complete break-up. That is a pragmatic position shared by Pashinyan too despite his focus on deepening ties with the West.

Russia failed to – or was reluctant to – support Armenia against Azerbaijan and prevent the loss of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, and Armenians are right to look for alliances elsewhere. But without a peace treaty with Azerbaijan and without full normalisation with Turkiye, one has to tread carefully and not burn bridges.

The Armenian leadership has to also factor in neighbouring Iran, with whom it enjoys positive ties. An escalation of the US-Israel war on Iran could threaten cross-border energy trade.

Putin would have loved to see Armenia and Azerbaijan attending Saturday’s parade. Ditto for Moldova, where pro-EU forces prevailed in the 2025 parliamentary elections. Or Georgia, which still has no diplomatic relations with Russia despite the rule of the authoritarian-minded Georgian Dream, a party viewed positively in the Kremlin.

The chances of those countries turning up next year are slim too. Even Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will probably not confirm until the last minute, as they have been doing for years.

These days, Russia’s near abroad is much more abroad than near.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.

Edwards’s 36 points give Minnesota 114-109 win and tie the Western Conference semifinals 2-2 against San Antonio Spurs.

Anthony Edwards scored 16 of his 36 points in the fourth ‌quarter, and the Minnesota Timberwolves took advantage of Victor Wembanyama’s ejection to post a 114-109 win over the San Antonio Spurs.

The Timberwolves’ win on Sunday ⁠night in Minneapolis tied the Western Conference ⁠second-round series at two games apiece.

Naz Reid contributed 15 points and nine rebounds off the bench for Minnesota. He also took an elbow from Wembanyama into his chin on the play in which the Spurs star was ejected in the second quarter.

Jaden ⁠McDaniels scored 14 points, Julius Randle scored 12 and Rudy Gobert had 11 points and 13 rebounds for the Timberwolves. Ayo Dosunmu added 10 points for Minnesota.

De’Aaron Fox and reserve Dylan Harper scored 24 points each, and Stephon Castle added 20 for the Spurs. Devin Vassell tallied 14 points for San Antonio. Wembanyama ⁠had four points, four rebounds and no blocks in 12-plus minutes.

“We never expected them just to go away,” Timberwolves coach Chris Finch said. “They won a game in the Portland series without Wembanyama, so they’re very good, very good team.”

The Spurs trailed by seven before Harper made two free throws with 29.1 seconds left and Julian Champagnie hit two with 20.6 seconds remaining to bring San Antonio within 112-109.

Dosunmu answered with two free throws with 9.8 ‌seconds left as Minnesota closed it out.

“Just small-time plays,” Edwards told reporters when asked how the Timberwolves won Game 4. “Small-time plays win big-time games. That’s what we needed. Diving on the floor, offensive rebounds and it was a great sub by Finchie for putting in Ayo for that last minute and a half.”

Earlier, Wembanyama grabbed a rebound and was trying to protect the ball from two Timberwolves when he turned and unleashed a vicious right elbow into Reid’s chin and was called for a foul with 8:39 left in the first half.

The officiating crew studied views of the play before upgrading the foul to a flagrant 2, which is an automatic ejection. Crew chief Zach Zarba said, “There was wind-up, impact and follow-through above the neck ⁠of an opponent.”

“I’m glad he [Wembanyama] took matters into his own hands – not in terms of ⁠hitting Naz Reid, I want to be very clear about that,” Spurs coach Mitch Johnson said. “I’m glad Naz Reid is OK, and I didn’t want him to elbow him. But [Wembanyama’s] going to have to protect himself if no one else does it for him. And I think it’s disgusting.”

Minnesota led 60-56 at the break. Edwards scored 18 in the half while Castle led San Antonio with 14 ⁠first-half points.

Despite the loss of Wembanyama, the Spurs scored 20 of the first 28 points in the third quarter and led 76-68 after a basket by Vassell with 4:33 left in the period.

“I thought, offensively, we were really doing ⁠a lot of good things,” Finch said. “We lost our way a little bit and gave them ⁠life.”

San Antonio’s Keldon Johnson drove for a hoop with 21.9 seconds remaining for an 84-80 advantage entering the final stanza.

Fox buried a three-pointer to give San Antonio a 94-86 lead with 8:51 left in the contest before Edwards scored 12 points during the Timberwolves’ 14-5 run.

“We had a chance to win,” Johnson said. “We didn’t close it out the way we wanted to. … Minnesota made ‌some plays and finished the game.”

Edwards started the burst with a jumper, and he soon scored five consecutive points on a short floater and a long straightaway three-pointer to cut the Minnesota deficit to three with 7:10 remaining. He later canned two free throws with 5:51 left to bring the Timberwolves within ‌97-95 ‌before drilling a three-pointer 39 seconds later to give Minnesota a one-point edge.

Gobert later delivered a thunderous dunk to give the Timberwolves a 107-101 lead with 1:56 to play.

Minnesota shot 44.7 percent from the field, including 10 of 27 from three-point range, while the Spurs made 47.7 percent of their attempts and hit just six of 26 from behind the arc.

Game 5 is on Tuesday in San Antonio.