Gift Nifty signals a weak start, while analysts expect volatility to persist amid earnings season and geopolitical risks. Key triggers include stalled diplomatic negotiations, India–US trade discussions, and defense deals, alongside mixed global market cues.
Indian markets are likely to open under pressure as Iran-US peace talks failed to make any meaningful headway. Analysts expect the market to remain volatile, with stock-specific action continuing amid the Q4/FY26 result season.
Osho Krishan, Chief Manager – Technical & Derivative Research, Angle One, said: Going forward, a stock-specific approach remains prudent amid the ongoing earnings season, while maintaining disciplined risk management within index-based trading strategies. Additionally, investors should remain vigilant about global developments, as external factors may continue to influence market direction and near-term sentiment.
Gift Nifty is trading at 24,370, down nearly 200 points.
Global trade deals and defense negotiations in focus
According to analysts, India’s global trade deals will be in focus.
Siddhartha Khemka – Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said India–US trade negotiations are progressing, with a delegation in Washington from April 20–22 to advance the first phase of the bilateral trade agreement — both sides have indicated only a few issues remain unresolved, and expectations of a formal announcement are building. Additionally, Defense Minister Rajnath Singh’s three-day visit to Germany (April 21–23) is progressing well, with India and Germany in advanced negotiations for a deal worth ₹70,000–99,000 crore to build six next-generation stealth submarines, he added.
Asia-Pacific markets turn volatile in early trade
Meanwhile, Asia-Pacific stocks (Nikkei and Kospi), which opened in negative territory, have entered positive territory in early Wednesday deals, indicating volatility is on the cards.
US–Iran tensions drive global risk sentiment
According to Hariprasad K, SEBI-registered Research Analyst and Founder, Livelong Wealth, the primary overhang stems from developments surrounding the US–Iran situation. “With the ceasefire deadline now passed and no concrete progress on a lasting agreement, concerns around a potential escalation have resurfaced. Iran’s stance against negotiations under pressure has further intensified fears of renewed conflict or disruption in critical trade routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. This introduces a significant element of geopolitical swing risk, keeping global markets on edge,” he cautioned.
Derivative, therefore, signals a cautious trend, he said.
Open interest trends further reinforce this cautious stance. “While index futures positioning remains inconclusive, index options data reflects a mildly bearish tone, indicating that market participants are actively hedging and preparing for potential resistance-driven pullbacks. This combination suggests a cautiously bullish structure, but with a clear sell-on-rise tendency near resistance zones,” said Hariprasad.
Published on April 22, 2026