On one side is the friendly hand of Russia which is assuring cheap oil, on the other side is the whip of America which is trying to make every import expensive with the threat of tariffs and sanctions. Libra Is. Prime Minister Narendra Modi Tak had to say that people should use less petrol and diesel, because the area from which the world gets the most oil is burning in the fire of war. Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov gave a statement just before the BRICS meeting to be held in Delhi, ‘India should not worry about oil at all.’ The question is, when the figures show a completely opposite picture, is this trust really enough?
The real stake behind Lavrov’s assurance
The Russian Foreign Minister openly said in an interview to RT India that the relations between India and Russia date back to before independence and no power in the world can weaken it. When he was asked why India’s imports fell after the ban on Russian oil companies Lukoil and Rosneft due to American sanctions, he directly targeted America.
Lavrov said, ‘This is an illegal decision of America. India has nothing to do with this. We will ensure that this game does not affect our contracts and India’s interests are not harmed. He sarcastically said that America’s only objective is that you should not buy cheap Russian oil, but buy my expensive oil and LNG so that I can rule the world’s energy.
Why are ground reality figures scaring?
Trust in words is a good thing, but the real story is told by the numbers. India imports about 90 percent of its total crude oil requirement. The cheap oil that Russia started providing after the Ukraine war changed the entire mathematics. In July 2024, Russia became India’s largest oil supplier and its share in total imports reached a record level of 44.6%. But then America made a series of threats of strict sanctions and tariffs.
The result was that within just one and a half years, by January 2026, this share fell directly to 20.6%. Suppose, if your cheap LPG cylinder suddenly becomes less than half, then you will definitely be worried. This is the condition of India’s energy security.
Direct battle between experts: be afraid of America or make allies with Russia?
Opinion is divided on this issue in the diplomatic circles of Delhi. Ajay Srivastava, former commerce official and head of the Global Trade Research Initiative, clearly advises adopting an aggressive approach. He told the BBC that this is an ’emergency-like situation’. He explains, ‘About 50 percent of the oil coming from the Gulf countries is stuck due to the Strait of Hormuz and the remaining 30 percent that we were taking from Russia has stopped due to American pressure. We should set aside America’s legitimate and illegitimate threats and make an agreement for 30-50 years from now. His argument is that America does not have enough oil to replace Russia, because its refineries will be built only for the next 10 years.
But on the other hand, ORF America’s Fellow Researcher Vivek Mishra points towards the bitter truth that India is currently not in a position to openly confront America. He said, ‘A strategic plan is needed to buy oil from Russia. America has imposed sanctions on Russian oil purchases. If India buys oil, it may have to pay a heavy price. PM Modi has appealed to save oil and gas, which should be strictly implemented. Not towards buying sanctioned Russian oil.
This is why the Government of India has adopted a very clever ‘blurring’ policy. Neither was it ever announced that oil purchases from Russia had been stopped nor were the purchase figures ever discussed openly. There was also a slight increase in the purchase of Russian oil in February-March 2026, but this is going on completely behind the scenes.
What will be the way forward for India?
This tension is not limited to oil only, but divisions are also clearly visible on forums like BRICS. While America is pulling India towards itself, Iran has created a new polarization along with Russia and China.
Lavrov may be consoling, but until India finds a permanent diplomatic solution to avoid American tariffs and sanctions, cheap Russian oil will remain an ‘option’, but it will not have the freedom to use it fearlessly. It is like walking on the tip of a needle, where on one side is energy security and on the other is the American market and investment.