EXPLAINER

As the war enters its fourth week, here’s a look at the latest on the US-Israel attack on Iran and across the Middle East.

The war launched by the United States and Israel on Iran has entered its fourth week, with more than 1,400 people reported killed in Iran.

Iran has attacked Israel and US bases in retaliation, threatened Western countries and Gulf states, and warned that global shipping and energy infrastructure could be at risk, as millions of Iranians mark Eid al-Fitr and Nowruz under the shadow of war.

Separately, the US said it was considering “winding down” the conflict while ruling out a ceasefire, and the United Kingdom has allowed the US to use military bases to carry out attacks on Iranian missile sites.

In Iran

• Casualties: The war has killed 1,444 people in Iran, including at least 204 children. Air defences were activated over the capital, Tehran, and nearby areas following reports of explosions as the country celebrated the first day of the Persian new year, Nowruz.
• United Kingdom: Iran fired ⁠two ⁠ballistic missiles at the US-UK military base ⁠Diego Garcia in the ⁠Indian Ocean, the semi-official Mehr news agency reported. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi had said Iran will “exercise its right to self-defence” and had warned British lives were in danger after the UK allowed the US to use its bases to launch strikes on Iranian targets.
• 70th wave of attacks: The Iranian armed forces have announced their 70th wave of attacks, launching missiles and drones towards Israel and US bases in the Gulf. This comes as Iran has stepped up its attacks on energy sites across Gulf Arab states in retaliation for an Israeli strike on Iran’s South Pars natural gasfield.
• Holidays marked amid war: Millions of Iranians marked a rare alignment of Eid al-Fitr and Nowruz (the Persian New Year) under the threat of bombardment. Large crowds gathered at holy sites like the Imam Reza Shrine in Mashhad, with many gatherings turning into anti-Western protests.

In the Gulf

• Direct threats to the United Arab Emirates: Iran’s military warned it will deliver “crushing blows” to the port city of Ras al-Khaimah if there is any “further aggression” launched from UAE territory against the disputed Gulf islands of Abu Musa and Greater Tunb.
• Bahrain under fire: Bahrain’s defence forces have intercepted and destroyed two more missiles fired from Iran. Bahrain reports that it has destroyed a total of 143 missiles and 242 drones since Iranian attacks began on February 28.
• Saudi Arabia: Its Ministry of Defense reported intercepting and destroying a huge barrage of drones over its eastern region. Saudi forces said they shot down at least 47 drones, including a concentrated barrage of 38 drones within just three hours.
• Kuwait: The Ministry of Defence announced the country is actively “dealing with hostile missile and drone attacks”.
• Refinery strike: Two waves of Iranian drones hit Kuwait’s Mina al-Ahmadi refinery early Friday, sparking a fire at one of the Middle East’s largest facilities, capable of processing approximately 730,000 barrels of oil per day.
• Qatar condemns Israeli strikes: In diplomatic developments, Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs strongly condemned an Israeli attack on military facilities in southern Syria, calling it a flagrant violation of sovereignty and international law.

In the US

• Trump hints at winddown: US President Donald Trump said he was considering “winding down” military operations against Iran and that the Strait of Hormuz would need to be “guarded and policed” by other countries that use the vital waterway. But he ruled out reaching a ceasefire agreement with Iran.
• Kharg island: According to an Axios report, Washington is considering plans to blockade or occupy Iran’s Kharg island, a strategic oil hub, in a move that could cripple Iran’s economy but risk major escalation.
• More US Marines: The US is reportedly deploying an additional 2,200 to 2,500 Marines to the Middle East, as Trump said he was not looking for a ceasefire with Iran.
• Potential for US ground troops: Al Jazeera correspondent Kimberly Halkett said the recent US military movements in the Middle East could lead to “potential US boots on the ground in Iran” in order to secure the Strait of Hormuz.

In Israel

• Widespread damage: Israeli authorities say Iran fired nine separate salvoes of missiles at Israel. While Israeli air defences are operating to intercept the incoming fire, falling debris and cluster munitions have caused widespread damage across central and northern Israel, as well as the western Dead Sea area.
• Shelter disparities: Palestinian citizens of Israel are demanding better protection against incoming missiles and drones, pointing out that they do not enjoy the same level of shelter access as other residents in Israel.

In occupied Palestine

• Al-Aqsa Mosque: Missile fragments fell in occupied East Jerusalem, just 350 metres (380 yards) from the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound, causing extensive damage to the religiously important site.

In Iraq, Lebanon, Syria

• Rising casualties: At least 1,001 people have been killed in Lebanon since Israel renewed widespread attacks, including at least 118 children, according to Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health.
• US forces attacked in Iraq: A US logistics support camp near Baghdad’s international airport in Iraq was attacked by rockets, with explosions reported in the area.
• Evacuation orders in Beirut: Israel has warned residents of several southern suburbs, including Haret Hreik, Ghobeiry and Hadath, to evacuate immediately before attacks on Hezbollah infrastructure.
• Military attack in Syria: Israel said it hit military infrastructure in southern Syria in response to alleged attacks on Druze civilians in Suwayda. Qatar, Jordan and Egypt condemned the attack.

Oil and energy markets

• Economic fallout: The ongoing disruptions in the Gulf have caused oil prices to surge, with Brent crude hitting $112.19 per barrel. This has triggered fears of lengthy supply disruptions and a potential global economic downturn.
• Shift in global shipping: The Panama Canal is currently operating at top capacity, seeing between 36 and 38 vessels pass daily. The canal’s chief noted this is due to a huge increase in demand for the passage of liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers stemming from the effects of the war.
• US lifts sanctions to counter rising costs: Washington lifted sanctions on Iranian oil already loaded on tankers to boost global supply, but Tehran said it has no surplus crude to sell, dismissing the US announcement as a move solely meant to give false hope to buyers.
• The oil sanctions paradox: Al Jazeera’s John Hendren also analysed the US Department of the Treasury’s decision to lift sanctions on Iranian oil already loaded on tankers, calling it an “interesting” and potentially “counterproductive” move, given Washington is trying to curb oil prices while actively at war with Iran.

• Critical maritime threats: The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) announced that the threat level across the Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman remains “critical”. The agency noted there have been 21 confirmed attacks on commercial vessels and offshore infrastructure since March 1, reflecting a broad campaign of maritime disruption.