The precious metals rocket ship keeps accelerating into uncharted territory. gold exploded past $5,600 to touch $5,626 on Thursday, smashing through ₹1.80 lakh in India, while silver broke the psychological ₹4 lakh barrier, marking a staggering 30 per cent year-to-date gain for gold and an eye-popping 66 per cent surge for silver. But as silver “screams” past historical norms, some experts are raising yellow flags about what comes next.

“Gold’s surge beyond $5,600 (₹1,80,000) and silver’s breakout above ₹4,00,000/kg reflect a deepening macro and geopolitical risk premium rather than short-term speculation,” explains Renisha Chainani, head of research at Augmont. The trigger? A combustible mix of Middle East tensions, dollar weakness, and Federal Reserve policy that’s essentially locked rates into accommodative mode.

Geopolitical tensions escalated sharply after President Trump urged Iran to return to nuclear negotiations, warning that “any future US military action would be far more severe.” Iran fired back with threats of retaliation against the US, Israel, and their allies, sending shockwaves through global markets and turbocharging safe-haven demand. “This exchange has heightened fears of a broader regional escalation in the Middle East, reinforcing risk-off sentiment,” notes Chainani.

The Fed held rates steady on Wednesday, but Chair Jerome Powell’s acknowledgment of “elevated inflation and an uncertain outlook” while declaring that “rate hikes are not anyone’s base case” has effectively given precious metals a green light. Powell also warned that “the US budget deficit is unsustainable,” adding another layer of fiscal anxiety driving investors into hard assets.

mcx gold has now crossed ₹1,77,000. Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, sees more upside ahead: “A clear and sustained breakout above the ₹1,80,000 band could quickly open the path toward ₹1,85,000–₹1,90,000, with a psychological extension toward ₹2,00,000 increasingly likely if global momentum sustains.” For silver, he projects targets at “₹4,08,000–₹4,15,000, with scope to extend towards ₹4,17,000–₹4,25,000.”

But here’s where it gets interesting. WhiteOak Capital Mutual Fund just released a report titled “Gold is Talking, Silver is Screaming: A Case for Prudent Repositioning,” warning that silver’s parabolic move “often signals the final, speculative stage of a run.” The Gold-to-Silver ratio has collapsed to approximately 46:1, far below the 10-year average of 80:1. “When it drops below 50:1, silver is no longer cheap,” the report cautions, noting that “in previous cycles, a ratio this low has preceded a mean reversion where silver prices corrected significantly faster relative to gold.”

Ross Maxwell from VT Markets explains the broader dynamic: “Policy uncertainty around growth, trade, and fiscal sustainability tends to pressure the USD increasing volatility expectations. If this environment continues, gold and silver benefit as a softer or range-bound USD would support precious metals.”

The industrial demand story for silver remains robust. “Robust industrial demand, fueled by rapid expansion in AI infrastructure, data centers, solar energy, electric vehicles, and advanced electronics—has emerged as a key support,” says Ponmudi. He adds that “momentum-driven participation, including FOMO (Fear of Missing Out)-led buying during technical breakouts, has amplified upside moves.”

Rahul Kalantri of Mehta Equities notes that “gold prices have surged more than 10 per cent over the last four sessions” with “investors increasingly shifting away from paper currencies and moving toward tangible assets.” Additional support has come from central bank buying and crypto major Tether’s plans to invest 10-15 per cent in physical gold.

Chainani’s technical view shows “gold sustaining above $5600 (₹1,87,000) opens the door to $5800–6000” while silver’s “decisive move above $118 (₹4,05,000) targets $125–130 (₹4,30,000–4,50,000).”

WhiteOak’s contrarian take suggests investors should “harvest the scream” by taking profits on silver first and rotating gains into diversified Indian equities, which offer better long-term returns and tax advantages. But for now, the precious metals party rages on, fueled by geopolitical chaos, fiscal fears, and a weakening dollar that shows no signs of stabilizing.

Published on January 29, 2026

India’s gold demand is likely to fall in 2026 following a drop of 11 per cent last year, as a surge in prices dampens jewelery sales and offsets an uptick in investment buying, the World Gold Council (WGC) said on Thursday.

Demand for gold could stand between 600 metric tons and 700 metric tons, compared to 710.9 tons last year, which was the lowest in five years, Sachin Jain, chief executive of the WGC’s Indian operations, told Reuters.

Jewelery buyers prefer stable prices of gold, but the volatile rising prices of recent months have far outstripped consumer budgets, ⁠Jain said.

“Inflow into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will continue to grow,” he said. “The stock market hasn’t performed very well in 2025, so investors are looking for better returns from ⁠gold.”

Inflows into gold ETFs jumped 283 per cent in 2025 from a year earlier to a record 429.6 billion rupees ($4.67 billion).

Domestic gold prices surged 76.5 per cent in 2025, while India’s benchmark Nifty 50 has risen 10.5 per cent in 2025.

Jewelery demand in 2025 fell 24 per cent from a year earlier to 430.5 metric tons, its lowest in nearly three decades except for 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic distorted figures, the WGC said in a report published on Thursday.

By contrast, investment demand rose 17 per cent in 2025 to 280.4 tons, its highest since 2013, the WGC said. Investment demand accounted for a record roughly 40 percent of India’s total gold consumption in 2025, up from a usual share of about a quarter.

“Equities may stay subdued and less attractive amid high valuations, tariffs, and foreign outflows,” ⁠the WGC said. “A gradual shift from jewelery to pure investment demand should continue to support bars and coins.”

Higher gold prices have historically spurred Indians to sell jewelry ⁠and coins, in a category called scrap supplies.

In 2025, however, such scrap supplies fell 19 per cent from a year earlier to 92.7 tonnes, as expectations of further price gains persisted despite bullion hitting fresh ⁠record highs almost weekly, the WGC said.

Published on January 29, 2026

Indian gold and silver futures jumped 6 per cent to record highs in early trade on Thursday, tracking gains in overseas prices and supported by a slide in the rupee to an almost all-time low, dealers said.

Domestic gold futures jumped 6 per cent to a record ₹1,75,869 per 10 grams in early trade, while silver futures jumped 6 per cent ⁠to an all-time high of ₹407,456 ⁠per kg.

Published on January 29, 2026

Gold surged to a record above $5,500 an ounce, extending a sharp rally driven by a weaker US dollar, a flight from sovereign bonds and rising geopolitical tensions. | Photo Credit: iStockphoto

Gold surged to an all-time high above $5,500 an ounce, extending a breakneck rally fueled by US dollar weakness and a wider flight from sovereign bonds and currencies.

Bullion jumped as much as 3.2% in early trading, building on a 4.6% leap in the previous session – its biggest one-day gain since the height of the Covid-19 pandemic in March 2020. Precious metals have risen dramatically this year on heightened geopolitical tensions and worries about the independence of the Federal Reserve, which have supported the debasement trade. Silver also hit an all-time high on Thursday.

Fed Watch Mode

Traders looked beyond the Fed’s widely expected decision Wednesday to leave interest rates unchanged. With a new monetary chief expected to take over from Jerome Powell later this year, BlackRock Inc.’s Rick Rieder — an advocate for more aggressive rate cuts — has emerged as a top contender. Traders are ramping up bets on a dovish policy shift, which would benefit non-yielding precious metals.

Global Bond Jitters

A recent selloff in the Japanese bond market is the latest example of concerns over heavy fiscal spending, while speculation the US may intervene to support the yen has weighed on the dollar, making precious metals cheaper for most buyers.

Dollar Debate

US President Donald Trump said this week he was not concerned about a drop in the dollar that dragged the world’s premier reserve currency to its weakest level in nearly four years, although Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent later said the administration supports a stronger currency.

Policy Shockwaves

The White House’s actions — threats to annex Greenland and military intervention in Venezuela — have also unsettled markets in recent weeks. The US leader has pledged to hike tariffs on South Korean goods and impose 100% levies on Canada if Ottawa reaches a trade deal with China.

Gold rose 0.8%% to $5,461.98.21 an ounce as of 8:02 am in Singapore, having earlier hit an all-time high of $5,588.71. Silver climbed 0.9.% to $117.119 an ounce. Platinum and palladium both fell. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was down 0.2%.

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Published on January 29, 2026