After the success in Bihar Assembly elections and Maharashtra civic elections, Asaduddin Owaisi led All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen i.e. AIMIM had planned a big political entry in Uttar Pradesh. However, even before his entry, Owaisi’s party has suffered a setback.
State UP unit president Shaukat Ali had claimed that AIMIM is discussing an alliance with Bahujan Samaj Party. Now BSP chief Mayawati’s statement has dashed AIMIM’s hopes.
During a press conference in the capital Lucknow on Wednesday, February 18, Mayawati stuck to the party’s old stand and said that the party will not make an alliance with anyone because it faces losses. Mayawati also alleged that as the elections approach, such claims will be made more rapidly but Ambedkarites will have to be careful of this.
After this announcement of BSP Chief, AIMIM’s strategies and hopes have been dashed. It was believed that if BSP agreed to an alliance with AIMIM, then Owaisi’s party would make a grand entry in the elections. The party not only claimed to contest the elections strongly on 200 seats, but their attempt was to ride on the elephant of BSP and do wonders in UP by bringing together not only Muslims but also Dalits and backward classes.
What did Shaukat Ali say on alliance with BSP?
AIMIM state president Shaukat Ali had said that while making alliance with BSP, we will try for Dalit-Muslim alliance. No matter whose government it is, Muslims have always been the victims of oppression. We want MIM to have an alliance with Bahujan Samaj Party in Uttar Pradesh. BSP is the first choice of the party for alliance in Uttar Pradesh.
Actually, everyone’s eyes are on Muslim votes in the 2027 elections in UP. Samajwadi Party and Congress, which are going to contest the elections under the flag of India Alliance, are also trying to ensure that the Muslim votes which were attracted towards them in the 2024 elections, remain with them in 2027 also. At the same time, BSP is trying to ensure that there is no dent in the class which it has been trying to bring with itself for the last 15 years. That is why BSP is not working with the idea of forming an alliance with any party.
UP Elections 2027: What do the figures say?
The Muslim population in Uttar Pradesh is about 19% and for a long time this section has been considered the strong base of SP. According to political analysts, SP got about 77 to 79% Muslim support in the 2022 assembly elections, while in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections this figure was said to be more than 90%. The direct effect of this unity was visible on the seats.
Estimated figures for the Assembly elections 2022 show that the Bharatiya Janata Party had strong support among Brahmins (about 89%), Thakurs (87%), Vaishyas (83%) and other advanced classes. Whereas Samajwadi Party got huge support from Yadav (83%) and Muslim (about 79%) voters.
On the other hand, according to the reports regarding the Lok Sabha elections, Samajwadi Party and Congress contested together in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and the alliance got success in 43 seats. There was a big inclination of Muslim voters towards SP, which also benefited Congress.
Why is everyone on alert from AIMIM?
Now the question is that when such a large number of Muslims are with SP and India Alliance, then why are they so alert about the entry of AIMIM? Actually, the reason for SP’s concern is also the results of local body elections in Maharashtra. Where AIMIM won more than 125 seats and challenged parties like SP in many Muslim dominated areas. SP weakened in areas like Govandi and Mankhurd of Mumbai. AIMIM has alleged that SP and Congress see Muslims only as a voter group.
Loss caused by partition in UP!
The effect of vote sharing has been seen before in UP politics. BJP got the benefit of division of Muslim votes in the 2017 assembly elections. BJP won 62 out of 82 Muslim dominated seats.
On the contrary, in the year 2022, large scale Muslim support went with SP and the party reached 111 seats. However, SP had to suffer losses in some areas due to Owaisi’s entry.
According to political experts, due to Owaisi, Akhilesh lost many assembly seats in Moradabad, Bijnor, Bhadohi, Saharanpur, Sultanpur and Jaunpur by small margins. AIMIM did not field candidates in Uttar Pradesh in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, due to which the polarization of opposition votes was reduced and SP benefited.
BSP’s denial, Akhilesh’s taunt, what will AIMIM do now?
Recently, when SP Chief Akhilesh Yadav was asked about AIMIM’s entry, he had said in a taunting tone that he would come riding a bicycle.
This statement of Akhilesh indicates that no matter how hard Owaisi tries, she will not give him much importance here and she will not accept division in her vote bank at any cost. Now, after the refusal from Mayawati, it has to be seen what will be the strategy of Owaisi’s party and how will it recover from this setback?
