The Liberal party is on the brink of dumping its first female leader, with Angus Taylor’s backers confident of defeating Sussan Ley in Friday’s leadership vote.
The embattled opposition leader faced a tide of 10 resignations by 7pm on Thursday, with frontbenchers including Dan Tehan, Michaelia Cash, Jonathon Duniam, James McGrath and Dean Smith all abandoning Ley to vote for Taylor.
Both sides agreed a handful of votes could decide whether a party room spill motion succeeds after 9am on Friday, but Ley’s supporters faced being outgunned by conservatives building support for a change in the party’s presentation and policy direction.
Taylor sensationally quit the frontbench on Wednesday night, posting a video to social media on Thursday morning announcing his long anticipated bid for the leadership.
Apart from a series of social media posts, Ley remained silent about the challenge, but agreed to demands from MPs for a special party room meeting to facilitate the vote.
Her deputy, Ted O’Brien, faces a fight to keep his job, with the Victorian senator Jane Hume and frontbencher Dan Tehan expected to nominate. The former environment minister Melissa Price also confirmed she would run for deputy.
Announcing his resignation, Tehan warned the Liberals faced a wipeout without change.
“We need to immediately unify, hold this dreadful Albanese Labor government to account, develop a policy manifesto true to our values, and make us match-fit to win elections,” he said.
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McGrath’s move to the backbench was a blow to Ley’s position, with the Queensland senator and former party strategist considered one of her key backers in the party room.
He said change was in the best interest of the country, his home state and the Coalition.
“While I realise this news won’t please everyone, it is important that Australia has a strong and effective opposition.”
Ley led a muted question time attack on Labor and participated in anniversary commemorations for the Rudd government’s national apology to the Stolen Generations. Labor turned its guns on Taylor, and lashed the Liberal party for infighting as parliament considered the latest Closing the Gap report on Indigenous disadvantage.
In order for the spill motion to succeed, half of the 52-person party room will have to vote to vacate the leadership.
In that event, Ley could opt to follow previous leaders and not to contest the subsequent ballot for leader, recognition of the spill as an effective vote of no confidence in her nine months at the top. That scenario could see Taylor elected unopposed.
If she is rolled, Ley will be the second shortest serving Liberal leader, ahead of only Alexander Downer’s troubled tenure in the 1990s.
There was speculation Ley could look to immediately quit politics if she is dumped, setting up a difficult byelection for the newly installed Taylor in a country seat.
Ley’s support included frontbenchers Andrew Wallace, Julian Leeser, Paul Scarr and Andrew Bragg.
Taylor had broader support, including the nine MPs who resigned the frontbench, and conservatives including Jacinta Nampijinpa Price, Tony Pasin, Jess Collins, Alex Antic, Ben Small and Sarah Henderson.
Paterson said he would stop the party’s haemorrhaging of support, including to One Nation.
“Angus is the smartest policy brain in the shadow cabinet, a man of courage and values,” he said. “And most importantly, Angus understands this is a change or die moment for the Liberal party.”
Key votes including the New South Wales senator Dave Sharma, up and coming rightwinger Simon Kennedy and conservative Cameron Caldwell were yet to declare their support.
Liberals were increasingly confident of the likely result on Thursday evening, with one telling Guardian Australia “it’s done”.
If Hume is elevated to deputy leader, she could replace Cash, the shadow foreign affairs minister, as the Coalition’s Senate leader, firming up any risk to her preselection and leapfrogging Paterson in the upper house leadership.
Conservatives demanded the new leader move more quickly to announce key policies, including on cost-of-living and immigration, criticising Ley’s approach while bogged down on fights about net zero and damaging splits with the Nationals.