A big claim has come to light amidst the ongoing tension in West Asia. American expert Robert Pape has said that Iran has now become one of the most powerful countries in the world. He warned that due to oil and war, Iran’s power is increasing rapidly and it will affect the entire world, especially countries like India.
He said that the current conflict is progressing in three phases. The first phase is US action, the second is Iran’s response and the third is moving towards war on the ground. At present the world is standing between the first and second phase. He said that Iran has great control over the Strait of Hormuz and oil, which has further increased its power.
Has Iran really become an oil superpower?
Robert Pape said that Iran has now become a big player in the world oil market. According to him, Iran has the power to influence about 20 percent of the world’s oil. He said that what could not be done in four decades of diplomacy was done in a few weeks of war. Now Iran is becoming stronger due to oil and nuclear capacity.
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Will it affect India?
He said that this will have a direct impact on countries like India. As oil becomes expensive, the prices of food items will also increase. He warned that there could be not only inflation but also fuel shortage. He said that rich countries will buy expensive oil, but poor and developing countries will have to face supply shortage.
Is India moving closer to Iran?
Pep claimed that India is gradually moving closer to Iran. He said that India is increasing contacts with Tehran to safeguard its energy interests. Although India is not saying this openly, but this is a kind of strategy in international politics. He called it bandwagoning.
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Will the oil crisis increase in the world?
He said that if the world oil supply decreases by 20 percent, it is not possible to compensate for it. He said that if instead of 100 million barrels, only 80 million barrels are available, then the remaining shortage cannot be met. Its biggest impact will be on poor countries.
Is there a danger for Trump too?
Pep further said that this war could also become a political threat for US President Trump. He said that if the war continues for a long time, political pressure will increase in America and Trump may suffer losses due to this. Even their power may be in danger.
Will there be a third phase of war?
He said that the third phase i.e. war on land would be the most dangerous. He said that Iran itself does not want to go to this stage, but circumstances are pushing it in that direction. If this happens, the conflict will escalate further and the global crisis may deepen. He warned that the real impact is yet to come. Right now people are just seeing the rise in prices, but the real crisis will be seen in the coming months. He said that this could become not only an economic but also a humanitarian crisis, in which shortage of fuel and food would be the biggest problem.
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