The former head of the armed forces has told Andy Burnham that plans for defence spending must meet a “Moscow test” to keep Russian threats at bay, warning the UK currently “falls short” of that level of commitment.
Adm Sir Tony Radakin, who was the chief of the defence staff until last year, said that if the government’s defence investment plan (Dip), expected to be published this week, was “not enough” then the probable next prime minister would have to find more funding before the general election.
Dan Jarvis, the new defence secretary, is believed to have already secured about £1bn more than his predecessor John Healey after days more of intense haggling between the Ministry of Defence (MoD) and the Treasury.
Healey quit earlier this month after he failed to secure more than £13.5bn to plug an £18bn gap in funding for the plan, which covers the department’s major capital programmes for the next 10 years.
Little is known about Burnham’s thinking on defence, and there have been worries in the MoD that the former mayor of Greater Manchester would reopen any spending deal agreed in Keir Starmer’s final days, despite the prime minister’s attempts to shore up his legacy on the issue.
Allies of Burnham said such concerns were wide of the mark, and they would rather the funding row – which has involved other departments taking a 1% cut to their capital budgets – was resolved and the Dip published now. But they added that he reserved the right to reopen it if needed.
Radakin told the BBC’s Sunday With Laura Kuenssberg programme that the Dip must match the commitment to spend more on defence because the world was more dangerous, so the UK needed to be “stronger” in the 2030s.
“That’s the big issue, and whether it’s this prime minister or the next prime minister, if we get an announcement of additional money, well, we should always welcome that,” he said.
“But if it’s not enough, then it may be that the new prime minister is going to have to find that money as part of the course of this parliament.”
The former military chief added: “It’s the Moscow test. What do we look like to Moscow? Do we look like a strong member of the Nato alliance? Do we look like a strong nuclear power? Do we look like a strong ally of America? Because those are the elements that keep us safe.
“There’s a risk at the moment that we fall short on those commitments and then that creates a whole load of hurt with our Nato allies, and especially our relationship with America.”
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Starmer, who is meeting the Nato secretary general, Mark Rutte, on Monday, has promised to publish the long-delayed Dip before the Nato summit on 7 July in Turkey, which will be one of his final international engagements. Burnham could take over in No 10 on 17 July if there is no contest.
Jarvis is understood to have already obtained at least £14bn as part of the negotiations, with the Dip expected to be published on Tuesday. But it is not clear that he has obtained any more money for the total defence budget.
Nato has a long-term target for allies to reach 3.5% of GDP by 2035, but there was concern at the MoD that the proposed settlement would leave too great a commitment to be met after the next general election.
Much of the total defence funding goes on the UK’s nuclear deterrent, accounting for 20% in 2025-26, rising to 25% in coming years. Nine nuclear projects cost more than £10bn and the new Dreadnought nuclear submarine is £41bn.
Radakin also said the UK found itself in the “unprecedented” and “unusual” position of being second from the bottom in a Nato league table that ranks member states based on how they are meeting capability requirements.
“That needs to be resolved, we need to play our part, we need to keep the UK safe, we need to keep our alliance partners safe,” he added.