CLSA on Indus Tower
High Conviction O-Pm TP Rs 580
4Q core revenue of Rs53bn was up 5% YoY/1% QoQ & core EBITDA adjusted for collections of past overdues was up 6% YoY/ flat QoQ, both in line with our estimates.
4Q net tenancy additions were 6,192 and it added 4,892 towers to 264,514 total, both highest in any quarter of FY26.
FY26 Ebitda was up 11% YoY & CEO said the growth outlook is strong.
AGR relief for VIdea also bodes well for Indus.
Also, after three years, the board reinstated the dividend at R14 for FY26.
Indus has net cash of Rs49bn on b/s & lease liabilities are 132% of debt
Retain projected core Ebitda Cagr of 10% by FY29CL, & val compelling at 6x EV/Ebitda
Nomura on Indus Tower
Buy, TP Raised to Rs 505
Largely stable 4Q; tenancy additions robust
Dividend reinstatement positive; lower Vi AGR may aid debt raise
Marginal sequential EBITDA decline on higher seasonal maintenance expense
Stock currently trades at 13.3x/ 6.3x FY28F P/E and EV/EBITDA respectively
Think any progress towards Vi debt raise will be a key catalyst for Indus Towers.
UBS on Indus Tower
Neutral, TP Rs 495
Q4FY26: Soft results; Rs14/share dividend below expectation
Operating metrics:
Indus added c4.9k towers (vs 3.5K/4.3k/2.5k in Q3/Q2/Q1FY26) & 6.2k tenancies (vs 6.1k/4.5k/5.8k in Q3/Q2/Q1FY26).
Tenancy ratio was flattish QoQ at 1.62x (vs 1.62x in Q3FY26 and 1.63x in Q4FY25)
Co’s lean tower count grew marginally to c14k.
Revenue / Capex
Average rental per tower was down 1% QoQ to Rs 66.6k & average rental per tenant was down 0.8% QoQ to Rs 41.1k, both were 2-3% lower than estimates.
Capex increased sequentially to Rs23.3bn (vs 19.8bn/25.6bn/19.5bn in Q3/Q2/Q1FY26), FY26 capex of cRs88bn is up 28% YoY.
Key updates,
i) Final dividend of Rs14/share recommended, FY26 payout ratio at 52%;
ii) Board approved incorporation of GIFT city subsidiary, will act as investment holding company for overseas subsidiaries and undertake treasury operations.
HSBC on Indus Tower
Reduce, TP Rs 345
FCF and dividends came below HSBCe as capex grew 28% y/y, despite organic co-location additions declining by 15% y/y.
Stock has priced in excessive tenancy additions from Vi; rentals to remain under pressure from lack of pricing power
Slower than expected FCF growth would be key de-rating catalyst
Jefferies on Indus Tower
UP, TP Rs 370
Q4 in line though the dividend of Rs14/share surprised negatively.
Over FY26-29, expect Indus to deliver 3% EPS CAGR, which along with sub-4% dividend yield makes risk-reward unattractive.
With reassessment of VIL’s AGR liabilities and dividend payout behind, see limited positive triggers particularly amid upcoming renewal risks.
DAM Cap on Indus Tower
Neutral, TP Rs 434
Indus’ financials were broadly in line with estimates
Tower additions were higher than estimates but mainly driven by new towers (likely Airtel) as incremental tenancies of 1,300 remained muted
Maintenance capex continues to remain elevated and a flat ARPT continues to be a disappointment.
Expect rev/adj. EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 8/6/6% pa over FY26-28E
Cut multiple from 7.5x to 7.0x on account of higher maintenance capex & overhang of Jio sites