Markets ended the final session of FY2026 sharply lower on Monday, with the Nifty 50 falling 488 points or 2.14 per cent to close at 22,331 — marking a loss of 5.05 per cent for the full financial year — as the US-Iran conflict entered its fifth week without any credible pathway to resolution, crude oil held above $100 a barrel, and the rupee slid past 95 to the dollar. despite central bank intervention.
The Sensex fell 1,636 points. India VIX surged to an intraday high of 28.79 before settling near 30 — well above the historical average of 12–18. The Nifty opened gap-down at 22,549, briefly touched 22,714, then slid to a session low of 22,283. This was the eighth session in the March expiry series where the index closed with losses exceeding 1 per cent, and the index broke below its prior swing low of 22,471 from March 23, confirming a chart breakdown.
Hariprasad K, SEBI-registered Research Analyst and Founder of Livelong Wealth, called the nature of the decline significant: “The nature of the sell-off indicates a shift beyond technical correction, with broader market psychology now reflecting caution and defensive positioning.” He added that elevated VIX levels “signal heightened fear and expectations of large market swings in the near term… markets are currently driven by uncertainty rather than directional conviction.”
Banking and financials bore the sharpest brunt. The RBI’s new restrictions on banks’ foreign exchange positions — aimed at curbing rupee speculation — hit treasury-sensitive lenders hard. Nifty PSU Bank and Nifty Financial Services were the top sectoral losers, each falling over 3 per cent. Bajaj Finance dropped 5 per cent, Shriram Finance and State Bank of India fell 3.8 per cent each. All 16 sectoral indices ended in the red, with 442 stocks within the Nifty 500 universe closing in the red.
Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, noted that momentum indicators remain firmly bearish: “RSI failing to cross the 40 mark and turning lower, while DI- continues to be placed well above DI+ on the ADX, reinforcing the negative trend.” He flagged the broader market’s relative resilience — midcap and smallcap indices, down 2.5 per cent–3 per cent, have not yet breached their March 23 swing lows unlike frontline indices.
On the conflict front, the widening of Iranian strikes, Houthi intervention in the Gulf, and visible US troop buildup deepened escalation fears. The Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed. Brent crude held between $106 and $109 internationally, while domestic crude appreciated over 3 per cent. Gaurav Garg of Lemonn Markets noted the cascade effect: “Escalating geopolitical tensions…dashed hopes of de-escalation and pushed crude oil prices higher, raising concerns over inflation and macro stability for oil-importing economies like India.”
Among the few bright spots, Hindalco rose 2.5 per cent and Tech Mahindra added 1.7 per cent. Defense counters gained after the Defense Acquisition Council granted Acceptance of Necessity for procurement worth approximately ₹2.38 lakh crore. Gold advanced 0.8 per cent and silver gained over 1 per cent as investors sought defensive cover. The rupee briefly touched 93.5 on RBI intervention before drifting back above 95, weighed down by FII outflows and elevated energy import costs.
Vikrant Chaturvedi of Brickwork Ratings put FY2026 in context: “FY2026 underlined the challenges of an uncertain and volatile global macro environment… a sharp crude oil price spike due to supply disruptions in the fourth quarter, driving cost inflation and weighing on corporate margins.” On FY2027, he said: “Equities face continued headwinds, while debt markets should offer relative stability… FY2027 will be a year of selective but constructive performance across asset classes.”
Technically, Nifty’s immediate support sits at 22,200–22,150; a break below could expose 22,000 and then 21,800. The critical medium-term watch remains the 200-week EMA near 21,900. Bank Nifty, which closed at 50,275 — down 3.82 per cent on the day and 2.50 per cent for the full year — finds support at 49,900–49,800. Q4 earnings season begins next week, and whether India Inc. has absorbed the geopolitical and energy shock — or whether downgrades follow — will set the market’s direction for the quarter ahead.
Published on March 30, 2026