Indian equities are likely to open again in deep red as the war continues to escalate in the West Asia region. Gift Nifty at 22,560 signals a gap-down opening of at least 250 points for the Nifty. Analysts expect the market to remain volatile and there is a lack of confidence among buyers.
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, a SEBI-registered online trading and wealth tech firm, said the ongoing US–Iran conflict, now entering its fifth week without a clear resolution, continues to keep markets highly event-driven, limiting investor confidence and driving volatility. “Global signals remain negative, with the Nikkei declining over 5 per cent and the Kospi down 4 per cent, which is indicating a strong risk-off environment and suggesting a weak undertone for Indian markets,” he added.
Crude oil prices continue to be a major concern, with Brent trading above $108 per barrel, driven by supply disruptions and geopolitical uncertainty. Elevated oil prices are increasing inflationary pressures, impacting fiscal health, and weighing on corporate margins. At the same time, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remain aggressive sellers, with outflows crossing approximately ₹1.14 lakh crore in March 2026, reflecting sustained global risk aversion and capital reallocation away from emerging markets. The Indian rupee has also come under sharp pressure, weakening towards the 94–94.8 range against the US dollar, further adding to imported inflation concerns and overall macro stress.
According to Hariprasad K, SEBI-registered Research Analyst and Founder, Livelong Wealth, the pressure is largely external, as escalating geopolitical tensions and surging crude oil prices continue to dominate investor sentiment.
“The broad-based weakness comes as the West Asia conflict enters its fifth week, with fresh escalation after Yemen’s Houthi movement reportedly launched missile strikes on Israel. This marks a widening of the conflict footprint and has heightened fears of prolonged instability in the region,” he warned.
Emkay Global Research said, “We believe the oil shock resulting from the West Asia conflict should trigger policy responses from the government to strengthen energy security. Pushing EV adoption is the most impactful option, in our view, with reintroduction of the demand subsidy. This could lower oil imports by an additional ~4.5 per cent by FY35. EV adoption should be paired with continued focus on renewable energy, with emphasis on addressing execution bottlenecks like evacuation. India is sailing close to the wind at 5-6 days of strategic petroleum reserves (with access to additional commercial pools). Existing plans to expand to 22 days by FY32 cannot be rushed, but we expect continued investments to help reach ~30 days by ~FY40.”
Crude oil remains the most critical macro variable at this stage. Brent prices have surged over 50 per cent in March and are now revisiting early-war highs, despite ongoing diplomatic efforts. “Market participants are increasingly pricing in a prolonged supply disruption scenario, with some global estimates indicating a potential spike towards $200 per barrel if tensions persist. For an import-dependent economy like India, this creates a direct risk through higher inflation, pressure on corporate margins, and a deteriorating current account outlook,” Hariprasad added.
Sectorally, oil-related companies, including upstream companies and oil servicing firms, are expected to remain in focus given the strength in crude prices. At the same time, sectors sensitive to fuel costs such as aviation and automobiles are likely to remain under pressure due to rising input costs and margin concerns, he further said.
Published on March 30, 2026