Why Sensex, Nifty gains 1% as crude oil falls on Iran de-escalation hopes

Markets opened sharply higher on Tuesday, with the BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty 50 gaining over 1 per cent in early trade, as easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pulled crude oil prices lower and lifted risk sentiment globally.

At 9.26 am, the Sensex was trading at 73,671.61, up 975.22 points or 1.34 per cent, after opening at 74,212.47 against its previous close of 72,696.39. The Nifty 50 stood at 22,829.90, up 317.25 points or 1.41 per cent, having opened at 22,878.45 against its previous close of 22,512.65. The gap-up opening came a day after the Nifty fell 601 points and the Sensex dropped 1,836 points in the previous session.

The rally was triggered after US President Donald Trump signaled a five-day halt to planned strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure, sparking hopes of diplomatic engagement. Brent crude fell sharply by around 10 per cent to $100 levels on the development. Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, noted: “…the market, it appears, is factoring in an end to the war as reflected in the August US oil futures trading at $80. However, in the near-term there will be excessive volatility in response to news regarding the war and events on the war front.”

However, the diplomatic picture remains unclear. Iran’s foreign ministry initially denied talks were underway, before later acknowledging attempts to “get diplomacy going” through third-party mediation. Hariprasad K, SEBI-registered Research Analyst and Founder of Livelong Wealth, cautioned: “…while markets are reacting to optimism, underlying geopolitical uncertainty has not fully dissipated.”

Asian markets reflected the improved sentiment, with the KOSPI surging nearly 4 per cent and Japan’s Nikkei advancing close to 3 per cent in early trade. US markets also closed in positive territory overnight.

On the Nifty 50, gainers outnumbered losers with only two stocks in the red. Shriram Finance led the pack, rising 4.09 per cent to ₹913.60 from a previous close of ₹877.70. Eicher Motors gained 3.25 per cent to ₹6,898.50 against its previous close of ₹6,681.50. IndiGo climbed 3 per cent to ₹4,063.50 from ₹3,945.30, while Eternal advanced 2.94 per cent to ₹233.63 from ₹226.96. Asian Paints added 2.76 per cent, trading at ₹2,179.80 against its previous close of ₹2,121.30.

On the losing side, Power Grid Corporation declined 1.47 per cent to ₹297.65 from its previous close of ₹302.10, while Coal India slipped 0.64 per cent to ₹452.35 from ₹455.25.

The sectoral composition of the gains reflects the broad-based nature of the rally — financial services, auto, aviation, quick commerce, and paints all participated. Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said: “…the easing in oil has been triggered by a temporary de-escalation in geopolitical tensions…This signals ongoing diplomatic engagement and has reduced immediate fears of a full-scale escalation, bringing short-term relief to global markets.”

Oil marketing companies are also expected to remain in focus through the session, as the fall in crude improves their margin outlook. For India, which is heavily dependent on oil imports, a sustained decline in crude prices could ease inflation pressure and reduce the current account deficit.

The Indian rupee, which had earlier breached the 84 mark against the US dollar, showed signs of recovery and was trading near the 83 level in offshore trade. Dr. Vijayakumar pointed to currency stability as a precondition for sustained market recovery: “…if some sort of stability is to emerge in the market, rupee should stabilize first.” He added that IT and pharmaceutical stocks are “…likely to remain resilient assisted by rupee depreciation.”

India VIX, which spiked to 26.73 in the previous session — up 17.17 per cent — is expected to moderate if risk-on sentiment sustains through the day. With Nifty’s weekly expiry falling on Tuesday, traders face accelerated time decay as implied volatility unwinds. On the institutional front, FIIs sold equities worth approximately ₹10,414 crore in the previous session, while DIIs bought ₹12,034 crore, cushioning the fall. Any moderation in FII selling remains a key variable for sustained recovery.

Aakash Shah, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Broking, noted that the broader trend remains cautious despite the gap-up: “…the move appears largely sentiment-driven. Unless supported by sustained follow-through and further clarity on geopolitical developments, the broader trend remains vulnerable, with sell-on-rise likely to persist at higher levels.”

Published on March 24, 2026