There is only one question in the air after the election war in West Bengal this time in two phases instead of eight phases last time. Will Mamata Banerjee create history by winning the election amid the ongoing battle over the Intensive Revision of Voter List (SIR), or will BJP really get a chance to blossom in the infiltration bid? While BJP is dreaming of victory by making issues of poor law and order, infiltration and 15 years of anti-incumbency against Mamta government, Mamata is again trying hard to polarize Muslims (28 percent).
In this state surrounded by three countries Bhutan, Nepal and Bangladesh, BJP has been dreaming of blooming lotus for the last two and a half decades. In the last elections, the party was successful in becoming the main opposition party, leaving behind the Left parties and Congress, but the dream of gaining power remained unfulfilled. This time he has made demographic change and corruption due to infiltration the main issues. Also, learning lessons from the last elections, a strategy has been made to have Khanti workers contest the elections instead of the leaders who switched sides.
Very tough competition on 36 seats
According to political analysis, in the last election the victory margin on about 36 seats was less than 5000 votes. Many of these seats were such where victory or defeat was decided by a few hundred votes. This is the reason why these seats are being considered as the most important battlefield for the upcoming elections. If the inclination of votes on these seats changes by a little bit, then the equation of power can also change.
Keep an eye on North Bengal and Jangalmahal
BJP’s strategy is to strengthen its hold in North Bengal and Jangalmahal areas. BJP had got good success in the last elections in districts like Cooch Behar, Alipurduar, Jalpaiguri and Darjeeling of North Bengal. At the same time, the Trinamool government under the leadership of Mamata is coming down with the help of social and welfare schemes. Trinamool claims that the schemes run for women, farmers and poor sections have given it strong public support.
Mamta is playing on the front foot
Mamata is continuously playing on the front foot to keep the Muslim vote bank intact. Especially opening an aggressive front against SIR in the Supreme Court, on the streets and in the Parliament is a strategy to retain this vote bank. In the last Lok Sabha elections, the difference in votes between BJP and Trinamool was seven percent. BJP wants to bridge this gap by uniting tribal, Matua and women voters. At the same time, the leader of opposition in the state, Shubhendu Adhikari of BJP seems to be very aggressive on the issue related to infiltration.
Will keep an eye on the new equation
Muslim vote bank is most important for the mandate here. The power remained with whoever this vote bank was with for decades. This time, there is a possibility of an alliance between Humayun Kabir’s Aam Janata Unnayan Party, who laid the foundation of Babri Masjid in Murshidabad, Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM and Furfura Sharif’s Pirzada Abbas Siddiqui’s party ISF. AIMIM can cause trouble for Trinamool in Dinajpur, Malda, Kabir Murshidabad and Siddiqui Kolkata areas bordering Seemanchal of Bihar.
Impact on national politics also
Political analysts believe that the elections in West Bengal are not limited to the power of the state only. This contest is also considered important from the point of view of national politics. With the announcement of the dates, it has become clear that the politics of Bengal is going to get more heated. The big question is whether Trinamool will be able to save the fort or will BJP be successful in reaching power for the first time.
Last Election-2021 Total Seats 294
party seat vote %
Trinamool Congress 215 48
BJP 77 38
other 02 10
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