Coal India Ltd shares rose 0.76 per cent to ₹443.80 on the NSE on Monday morning, making it the only gainer on the Nifty 50 index amid a broader market decline, after brokerage Axis Securities upgraded the stock to ‘Buy’ with a revised target price of ₹500.
The upgrade, published on March 6, marks a shift from the ‘Hold’ rating Axis had maintained since August 2025. The brokerage raised its target from ₹415, implying a potential upside of roughly 12 per cent from Friday’s close of ₹440.45. The stock has touched a 52-week high of ₹461.55 and a low of ₹356.
Axis Securities cited several macro tailwinds for the upgrade. Geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20 per cent of global oil and 30 per cent of LNG passes — have pushed up natural gas prices, potentially boosting domestic coal demand. The brokerage also noted that Indonesia’s coal exports fell 3.7 per cent year-on-year to around 391 MT in CY25, well short of its 650 MT government target, making Coal India’s supply more competitive for Indian power utilities.
On the demand side, Axis expects power consumption to pick up heading into summer 2026, aided by the fading La Niña weather pattern and a rising probability of El Niño conditions by mid-year. The brokerage raised its average selling price assumption for FY27 and FY28 to ₹2,750 per tonne from ₹2,500, and lifted EBITDA estimates by 8-9 per cent for those years.
For FY28, Axis projects net sales of ₹1,60,820 crore and net profit of ₹35,044 crore, with EPS of ₹56.9.
Key risks include weaker-than-expected offtake — Coal India’s cumulative dispatches for April–February FY26 were down 2.8 per cent year-on-year at 674.6 MT — and the impact of a wage revision due in July 2026.
Published on March 9, 2026