The dollar’s slide to a four-year low lent fresh momentum to the precious metals complex on Wednesday, pushing prices further, even as geopolitical tensions continued to support it.
Reactions to the latest rally were mixed with some analysts forecasting further surge in the precious metals, but some cautious saying they are in the over-bought category.
At 1915 hours IST, gold zoomed to $5,295 an ounce. Gold April futures soared to $5,344 an ounce before easing. In India, the yellow precious ended at a fresh high of ₹1,64,635 per 10 gm. On MCX, its April futures quoted at ₹1,73,799 after hitting ₹1,73,900.
Silver, which ruled over $115 an ounce, eased to $113.93 an ounce. March futures of the white precious metal quoted at $114.20 an ounce. In the Mumbai spot market, it ended at ₹3,58,627 per kg after soaring to ₹3,61,821 at the opening. On MCX, February futures were ₹3,81,160, easing from ₹3,83,100.
Platinum, which plunged by over 10 per cent on Tuesday, recovered to rule at $2,655.50 an ounce. Palladium, which lost 12 per cent, topped $2,000 an ounce again at $2,015.50.
Research agency BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, said precious metals continued to rally as a myriad of geopolitical tensions supported their rise. “We have raised our gold price forecast for 2026 to an annual average of $4,600/oz, and expect it to remain elevated between $4,500 and $5,500/oz in the coming weeks,” it said.
Aamir Makda, Commodity & Currency Analyst at Choice Broking, said while the momentum (in precious metals) was “undeniably” strong, there was a technical warning sign. “The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is currently in overbought territory across all timeframes. More importantly, a Daily RSI divergence has appeared—a classic “red flag” suggesting that long positions should proceed with caution despite the bullishness,” he said.
In a separate note, Goldman Sachs flagged a “meaningful upside risk” to its gold forecast of $5,400 an ounce by December 2026. Deutsche Bank said, based on gold’s performance over the past two years, prices closer to $6,900 an ounce would be more consistent.
Société Générale expects gold to reach $6,000 an ounce by end-2026 but said the forecast could prove conservative. Morgan Stanley sees gold potentially topping $5,700.
BMI said uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump’s shifting policy stance on Greenland and other geopolitical issues was likely to remain bullish for gold in 2026.
On silver, BMI noted that the market remained fundamentally tight, with implied lease rates — the cost of borrowing physical silver — still elevated near 3 per cent. “In a balanced market, these rates would typically be near zero,” it said, adding that the Shanghai premium was at an all-time high of about 10 per cent, indicating stronger prices in China than in London or New York.
Domestic market
Prices are even higher in India, where retail demand for silver continues to climb. “From a technical perspective, however, silver now appears expensive relative to gold, with the gold-to-silver ratio currently at a four-year low. We believe most of the rise in silver over the past week has been due to the same reasons as gold, with speculative buying leading the latest rally,” said BMI.
It said it expects silver prices to ease in the coming months as supply tightness eases and industrial demand for silver starts to peak with a slowing Chinese economy. “Indeed, we believe demand for silver from China’s solar industry has likely already peaked in 2025,” said the research agency.
Some analysts, including Marko Kolanovic, former chief strategist and co-head of Global Research at JP Morgan, see silver prices halving later in 2026.
US-based financial services firm Citigroup Inc said spot silver could surge to as high as $150 an ounce over the next three months. It said in a note that Chinese buying is providing the momentum for silver.
“Silver is behaving like ‘gold squared’ or ‘gold on steroids’. We think this will likely continue until silver looks expensive by historical standards, relative to gold,” it said. Earlier this week, silver touched a record $117.7 an ounce, fueled by physical demand, speculative interest and Chinese purchases.
Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank said the platinum group of metals has been supported by demand from China with fundamentals favoring platinum over palladium.
So fat this year, gold has gained 22 per cent, silver 58 per cent, platinum 28 per cent and palladium 19 per cent.
Published on January 28, 2026