Home Finance Share Market Highlights 22 September 2025: Sensex, Nifty Slip as it Stocks SINK on Us H-1B Visa Fee Shock

Share Market Highlights 22 September 2025: Sensex, Nifty Slip as it Stocks SINK on Us H-1B Visa Fee Shock

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Share Market Highlights 22 September 2025: Sensex, Nifty Slip as it Stocks SINK on Us H-1B Visa Fee Shock

Macquarie on Sun Pharma

OP, TP Rs 2000

Management Meet TakeaWays

Management Remains Confident of Growing Its Branded Businesses with Focus on Innovative Medicines & India Businesses

Innovation segment to do well; India remains a key focus market

Us Generics Market, too big to ignore

Lower fy26/27/28e earnings est. By 9/8/6% to reflect highher than expected effective tax rate guided by management during Q1fy26 Earnings Con Call

Catalysts: Quick ramp-up in leqselvi and unloxcyt, lower than expected one-time spend for leqselvi and unloxcyt launch, accountive m & a deals

Jpmorgan on nbfcs

Shriram finance – assume overweight; TP ₹ ₹ 740 from ₹ 730

M & M Finance – Assume overweight; TP ₹ 335 from ₹ 300

Bajaj Finance – Assume Neutral; TP ₹ 1,070 from ₹ 970

Chola Finance – Assume Neutral; TP ₹ 1,620 from ₹ 1,600

SBI cards – Assume underweight; TP ₹ 830 from ₹ 800

L&T Finance – Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight; Tp ₹ ₹ 260 from ₹ 140

Bofa Sec on Knowledge Realty Trust

Initiate Buy, TP Rs 110

Key features

i) Most geographically divese

ii) High Exposure to GCCS & low to it services, iii) healthy bs with c.20% leverage, iv) High exposure to floating debt

iii) Sponsored by Blackstone & Sattva.

Recent sebi update to grant equity status to reits is likely to help widen investor base.

Ms on paytm

EW, TP Rs 1175

Management highlighted its Increased Focus on Profitable Growth as Seen in 1qf26 (First Quarter of positive pat for paytm).

Management Expects Contribution Margin to Be Sustained Largely Around Current Levels.

It expects Continued Efficiency Gains, Helped by Its AI Initiatives Its Operations, Giving it an Edge in Efficiency, Risk Management, & Customer Experience

With respect to mdr on upi, there have been industry discussions on potential UPI MDR on Large Merchants, but it’s untilar at this stage as to how this will resultsly out

Jefferies on it

Us Government’s Move to Introduce a $ 100K FEE FEE for New H1B Applications will Entrely Offset EBIT PER H1B Employee, Driving A Shift Away from H1B Usage (7-12% of REV) TOWD Local Hiring, subcontracting, & near/offshoring

Talent Supply Crunch Will Drive Up Onsite Wages, Why Cold Drag Profits By 4-13%

Among Large Caps, View TCS/Info as Well Placed; Among Midcaps: Coforge

Clsa on it

H1b fee hike to have limited impact

See up to a 6% Hit to fy27 earnings of Indian it cos under coverage assuming entry burden on fresh applications is borne by them & not share shared with clients, & they content to file a Simber number of festive Applications as avg. over past three years

Believe Actual Hit Should Be Lower Than Scenario

LTIM & PSIS are seeing highhest impact, at c.6%, while tcs lowest, at Around 1%

Nomura on it

Us Workforce of Indian It Firms ~ 20-40% Visa-Dependent

New Visa Apps ~ 17% of Total Filings; One-time cost impact of ~ $ 100k per filing

Potential Hit: EBIT Margin -11-99BPS, EPS -0.5-6% If ops model unchanged

H1B Visa Availability Likely to Fall Materially from FY27F

Medium/long-term: firms to lower visa dependence

Top Picks: Infosys ₹ 1880 (BUY), Coforge ₹ 2100 (BUY), First source ₹ 410 (BUY)

Citi on it sector

If h1b visa rules are implemented as is, see multiple potential impacts

Cost of Doing Business in the Us Goes Up – Part of this will be passed on to clients

Higher Nearshoring & Offshoring (Including GCCs) is a very likely outcome, medium term

Indian it margins will get impacted

Indian it competitiveness in a global context doesn Bollywood

Nuvama on h-1b visa

Increase in Visa Fee (from ~ $ 1,500) May Affect Indian It Operations/Financials, but impact likely limited

Companies Expected to Mitigate via Higher Nearshoring/Offshoring or Hiring Local Talent

Over the past 8 years, Industry has reduced reliefs on h-1b visas significant

Some Near-Term Operational and Financial Impact Unavoidable

Long-Term: Higher offshoring likely to offset Much of the impact

Sector Expected to Remain Volaty in Near Term Due to Uncerty

Margin/Earnings Impact Likely Limited as Companies Adopt Cost-Efficient Measures

Bofa sec on voltas

UP, TP Rs 1203

Near-Term Weakness Persists: Weak Summer, High Inventories, Deferment in Demand to Weigh on Q2 and FY26 volumes

Recovery hopes priced in: Festive/GST Tailwinds May Aid 3q, but Industry Cold Still see 5-12% Contraction for full year fy26

Valuations full: at 42x fy27e p/e, stock looks expensive; may see better entry closer to summer 2026 with clearer visibility

Bofa sec on info edge

UP, TP Rs 1300

Recently Announced $ 100K Visa-Fee Neutral to Positive for Naukri; Sentimentally negative, but don’t expect impact on nt nos.

Companies May Look to Hire More Through Gccs: Positive; However, if gccs diversify away from India: then it may not benefit

U/p on infoedge: despite any uptake in gcc hiring, overall trends may not be as strong, give efficiency gains from gen ai

Jefferies on Interglobe aviation

Buy, TP Rs 6925

Management Meet

Mantained Early Double-Digit Capacity (Ask) Growth Guidance for Fy26.

Prask is expected to be flat-to-Higher yoy in 2q.

Mgmt reiterated long-term tailwinds for aviation growth in India, despite the near-term softness.

On INT’L Side, Co is Seeding New European Routes Using Leased 787s and Expects XLR Delivery Starting from 4QFY26.

Long-Term, IndiGo Targets 600+ Aircraft By 30 and Co is expected its geo and customer profile with recent initiatives.

Jefferies on Adani Enterprise

Buy, TP Rs 3000

Mgmt said Navi Mumbai Airport is set to launch in oct-25 with 20mn pax, & mgmt targets 80%+ cu in fy27.

Mgmt also discussed new tariffs across its airports giving visibility on Profitability

In Anil, Solar/ Wind Projects are scaling up, while gh2 projects will be taken up based on project viability.

In another development, sebi has cleared adani group of hindenburg’s stock manipulation allegations.

Citi on Voda Idea

Buy/High Risk – TP Rs 10

Supreme Court has admitted Voda Idea’s Latest Agr Please, With Gov’T also expressing its support

Key Developments

1) VI’s Petition: Vi has filed a fresh petition challenging additional demands from Gov’t for Pre-FY17 Agr Dues. Vi has argued that Agr Demand Amount should be considered final, but if subject to change, then enter age (up to fy17) should be ressed & reconcilled.

2) Govt’s Stance: Gov’T has indicated it has no objection to vi’s plea. Citing Its 49% Stake in VI & Broader Public Interest, Gov’T sugged that a solution is Necessary (Subject to sc approval) & requested some indulgence from sc

3) SC’s observation: sc noted need for finality in these proceedings & has scheduled next hearing for sep 26th

Mosl on kotak bank

Target Price: ₹ 2,400 (MainTain Buy)

Business growth healthy; ROA Remains SUPerior at Over 2%

Loan Trajectory aligned with disciplined target of 1.5–2.0x

NII Estimated to Clock 19% Cagr Over FY26–28; NIMS Stabilizing and Recovering from 3QFY26

Provisioning Expenses Expected to Subseide vs 1qfy26 and Improve Further in 2HFY26

Full-Year Credit Costs Likely to Sustain at 70bp vs 93bp in 1qfy26

Current Year Performance Estimated Modest, but Earnings Cagr of 20% Over FY26-28E

Robust Return Ratios Expected: ROA/Roe at 2%/12.8% by fy27e

Nuvama on auto sector

Customer Sentiments Boosted Significantly By GSTS (Per Channel Checks)

Expect Double-Digit Growth during Festive Period Across PV, 2W & Tractor Segments

Upgrading Auto OEM Revenue Estimates by up to 5% due to GST Benefits, New Products, Upcoming Pay Commission & Interest Rate/Income Tax Reforms

Better Scale & Lower Discounts Supporting Ebitda Upgrades by up to 14%

Improved Affordability Likely to Aid Recovery in Entry-Level Segments → Higher Target Multiples for MSIL, Hyundai & HMCL

Top Picks: MSIL, TVSL, MM, HMCL

Downgrade: EIM & BJAUT to Hold from Buy Due to Limited Upside Potential

Morgan Stanley on PB Fintech

Recommendation: underweight; Target Price: ₹ 1,370

September 2025 performance MUTED So far

Premium growth expected to improve from Q3, Aided by a Lower Base

Morgan Stanley on SBI Cards

Recommendation: underweight; Target Price: ₹ 710

Receivables growth expected to pick up gradually

Watching Impact of GST Rate Cuts on Spending Growth

Nim expected to expand in q2 with lower borrowing costs and remain stable there

Bofa on paints

Key Issues: Modest Demand & Rising Competition in Indian Paints Sector

Demand Pick-up Possible Given Last Year’s Low Base

High competitive intensity likely to person

Companies Making Efforts to Tackle The Tough Environment

Jefferies on AC Industry

GST Rate Cut: Reduced to 18% vs 28% Wef 22 Sept → ~ 8% Lower Market Price

Can Aid Liquidation of Existing Inventory (Currently ~ 30 Days Above Normal)

Q2 weak so far, but last week crucial post-gst cut & festive onset

Q3 outlook strong with festive sales, pent-up demand, clearance before new bee bee norms, and second summer in west & south India

GS on Hyundai

Recommendation: Neutral; Target Price: ₹ 2,970 (from ₹ 2,600)

Expect Stronger Demand Elasticity in Compact Suvs, Premium Hathbacks & Sub-4M Sedans vs. Larger SUVs/Entry-Level Cars

Domestic India Market Contributes ~ 78% of Hyundai Motor India’s Revenue

FY27 -FY28 EPS Estimates Raised by up to 8%

Ms on idfc first

Recommendation equalweight; Target price ₹ 68

Credit cost peaked in q1 and will likely improve sequeanally every quality

Nims to moderate 10-15 bps in q2 and recover there

Reiterated Its Loan Growth Guidance of Around 20% Yoy

Kotak India Strategy

GST Cut = 15% Increase in Eps in Perpetuity! Surely not

Higher Market Cap. Has to be largerly justified through higher volumes, an extramely optimistic Scenario

It is believed Difacity to reconcile this rosy view with the reality of market size and other factors

Bofa on Food Delivery

Eternal – MainTain Buy; Hike tp to Rs 400 from Rs 350

Swiggy – Mantain Neutral; Hike tp to Rs 475 from Rs 450

QC Competition Low: BLINKIT & Instamart Are Benefiting

Dark Store Additions: Blinkit Adds Strong, Slowing

Food Delivery: Gradual Recovery in Growth & Margins

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