Good morning. Yesterday, the UK, Canada, Portugal and Australia joined 147 other countries in formally recognising the state of Palestine. Today, at a meeting on the sidelines of the United Nations general assembly, France, Belgium, Malta and others will take the same step.

That coordinated action is a moment of real significance, and represents a rebuke to Israel and the United States for the unending assault on Gaza, an objection to the annexation of the West Bank, and a gesture of support for a two-state solution. But nobody expects that it will end the war, or suddenly create the sovereignty, institutions and settled borders that are the bare minimum for a state to be viable – and there are fears that Benjamin Netanyahu will respond by sanctioning the acceleration of construction in the West Bank.

The debate over the decision taken by the UK and others is haunted by a profound diplomatic question: how do we weigh the value of a symbolic gesture? The answer depends on what happens next. For today’s newsletter, I spoke to Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow for Middle East security at Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), about what we mean when we talk about a state of Palestine – and what impact this decision could have on its future. Here are the headlines.

Five big stories

1. US news | Thousands gathered in Arizona for a public memorial to honour Charlie Kirk, with his widow, Erika saying she forgives the man charged with his killing. Donald Trump told the crowd: “I hate my opponents, and I don’t want the best for them.”

2. Air transport | Gatwick airport’s £2.2bn second runway plan has been given the go-ahead by the transport secretary, Heidi Alexander. Critics described the move as a “disaster” that “ignores basic climate science”.

3. Social media | Rupert Murdoch and his son Lachlan Murdoch will probably be involved in the effort to buy TikTok in the US, Donald Trump said in an interview on Sunday. Such a deal is thought to be likely to involve Fox corporation rather than the Murdochs individually.

4. Russia | Two German Eurofighter jets were scrambled on Sunday to intercept a Russian military aircraft above the Baltic Sea, as Estonia said it would call an emergency meeting of the UN security council after Russian planes violated its airspace.

5. UK politics | Zarah Sultana has said she will call off legal action announced as part of a bitter feud at the top of her new party with Jeremy Corbyn. On Friday, Sultana said that she had instructed defamation lawyers over a row about her launch of a membership system for the fledgling Your Party.

In depth: ‘There’s a mismatch between the rhetoric of recognition and the reality on the ground’

Recognition of the existence of a state rests on four criteria set out in the 1933 Montevideo Convention: a permanent population, a defined territory, an ability to hold diplomatic relations with other nations, and a government. Even if some of those features are threatened or disputed – as in Palestine, where large parts of the state are occupied and the government dealt with by countries like the UK has no real authority in Gaza – the state can still be recognised: in the end, doing so is a political choice. This piece on The Conversation sets out the legal picture in more detail.

A functioning state of Palestine would, of course, be of enormous value to Palestinians. Among other things, it would mean democratic institutions exercising the will of the people; the right to control its own borders; the ability to trade freely with other nations; and a proper seat at the UN. The UK and others recognising the existence of Palestine does not provide any of that.

Nonetheless, Burcu Ozcelik said, it matters – up to a point. “It is a recognition of the intrinsic value of the right of a people over sovereign territory. Will it change the course of the war? I’m not so sure about that.”

Does the decision have any immediate practical consequences?

“The Palestinian Authority already has a mission in London,” Ozcelik said. “The head of the mission is often referred to as the informal ambassador. That will likely now be elevated to a formal status. The mission is generally pleased that the UK is taking this step, and that it is another step on a long road to a state that exists on the ground.”

There are significant limitations to the practical impact of the decision, however. Palestine can only become a full UN member state with the agreement of the full security council, with the US the sole but immovable holdout. The Palestinian Authority, the body which the UK currently engages with as acting on behalf of Palestinians, has no meaningful role in Gaza, and there is no prospect of the UK dealing with a Hamas-run government there.

Above all, under any definition of a Palestinian state, it is currently under violent occupation by Israeli forces that have now been found by a UN commission of inquiry to have committed a genocide. That will not change because of the UK’s statement.

“This decision means the recognition of the rights of a people, not a particular government,” Ozcelik said. “We do not know the borders of a future state, and we have to accept that pragmatically Israel and the United States will have an outsized influence over that. It is aspirational: there’s a mismatch between the rhetoric of recognition and the reality on the ground.”

Why might it be important anyway?

There is no doubt that the decision’s value is primarily symbolic – but, Ozcelik said, “that doesn’t mean that it will be trivial”. Even if it is seen as a threadbare minimum or overdue, it is also true that the decision will be understood by many as a welcome acknowledgment of the sovereignty that is Palestine’s by right. On Today in Focus last week, Arab Barghouthi noted that it had weight precisely because Israel is “bragging about the fact that they are killing the idea of a Palestinian state”.

Ozcelik also pointed to the fact that the UK and France, in particular, are taking this step: “It is not lost on Arab and Muslim capitals that these were the countries that divided up the remains of the Ottoman empire after the first world war, and effectively designed the map of the modern Middle East.” Patrick Wintour’s timeline provides some of that context.

All that is likely to mean little to Palestinians living under constant bombardment in Gaza. But there are consequences that might ultimately flow from the pressure created by these moves to recognition, Ozcelik said. “When a plan for the ‘day after’ is finally discussed, it may help to ensure that there can be no forced expulsion for Palestinians – that if they choose to leave, they have the right of return.”

She also pointed to settler violence against Palestinians in the West Bank, and Israel’s informal but concerted policy of annexation: “All eyes will be on whether the UK sees that it has accepted a more substantial responsibility, and is more vigilant and willing to act to deter it.” That proposition is likely to be tested very soon: far-right minister Itamar Ben Gvir called yesterday for “the immediate application of [Israeli] sovereignty” in the West Bank.

The most optimistic view is that France and the UK will be able to influence Donald Trump to take a different stance. But there appears to be little realistic prospect of that happening as a result of this decision: Trump has not forcefully opposed it, precisely because he says: “It’s not going to change anything.” Andrew Roth has more on the diplomatic fallout.

What are the criticisms of the move?

Israel is unsurprisingly strongly opposed to the decision. Yesterday, Benjamin Netanyahu called it “absurd” and “a reward for terrorism”. Keir Starmer points out that the UK’s position is that there can be no role for Hamas in Palestine’s future.

Some on the Palestinian side see it as an empty gesture, elevating the impotent Palestinian Authority and coming with no serious practical action attached. This roundtable published by Palestinian policy network Al-Shabaka gives a flavour of those objections: “The result is political theatre,” says human rights lawyer Diana Buttu. “If the world will not intervene to stop a genocide, why would it act merely because one UN member state is occupying another?”

The question now is whether countries like the UK and France view recognition as an end point or a platform, Ozcelik suggested. “There is a fear that they will take this step and then say regional actors have to take it from here. What could make a difference on the ground is a long-term commitment to recognise and engage with a future Palestinian state.”

One answer to that challenge might be the framework for peace backed by European and Arab states, which has been developed despite opposition from the United States. That calls for a transitional authority to run Gaza after a ceasefire, Palestinian Authority elections within a year – Mahmoud Abbas has led the PA for two decades – and a UN-mandated “stabilisation” force on the ground.

Why has the UK acted now?

Before taking the decision to recognise Palestine, British officials have argued that they hoped to time such an announcement for a moment of maximum leverage, in concert with allies – arguing that reserving the move to be taken during future peace negotiations would be valuable.

The decision to act now instead is partly a response to fierce pressure on the government from those on the left, many of whom would argue that the right time was long ago – as Nesrine Malik argues here, that “the emphatic gesture is a historical moment where the record is not written, but corrected.” (Pippa Crerar’s analysis examines the political fallout in the UK.) It may also have been precipitated by a sense, shared with allies, that the situation is so dire that there was little point in delaying for a moment that now appears a very long way away.

There may also have been a sense that action now was necessary to keep Arab partners on side, Ozcelik said. Ultimately, she added, “the question of whether this is the right time to exact maximum benefit prompts the question of whether there can be any ‘right time’ now. This is, at least, the recognition of statehood as a moral and legal right.”

Whatever happens, she added, “it’s important that the Palestinian state that eventually emerges after the war is one that recognises Israel and vice versa – it is ultimately these two peoples that must live next to each other. It’s their reciprocal recognition that defines whether peace holds or not.”

What else we’ve been reading

• Phil Harrison’s ode to Fawlty Towers, 50 years on from its first episode, is well deserved: its 12 perfect half hours are yet to be matched. The less said about a persistently threatened reboot the better. Toby Moses, head of newsletters

• Ahead of an expected white paper this autumn, ministers have refused to guarantee the future of the education, health and care plans relied on by many families of children with special needs. But, John Harris writes, the dismay felt by those parents is now spreading through Westminster – and a huge political struggle could be the result. Archie

• Your Party? Our Party? Any party? The collapse-before-its-started nature of Jeremy Corbyn’s new electoral vehicle may have brought mirth to some, but Yanis Varoufakis and Ken Loach warn that its demise will leave millions without a political home. Toby

• Simon Hattenstone’s meeting with Matthew McConaughey for Saturday magazine is a perfect combination of interviewer and subject. “I would have made a good monk,” McConaughey says. Make your own mind up! Archie

• J Oliver Conroy examines how the US right has moved from free-speech absolutism to embracing cancel culture, using the powers of government to silence those with whom they disagree. Toby

Sport

Football | Arsenal overcame a stubborn Manchester City defence to claw back a 1-1 draw in the big match at the Emirates, with substitute Gabriel Martinelli (pictured above) nicking the equaliser in injury time.

World Athletics Championships | Georgia Hunter Bell and Keely Hodgkinson won silver and bronze respectively in the world 800m final – with their bid for a 1-2 finish foiled by Kenya’s Lilian Odira. The championships closed with Team GB failing to win a single gold for the first time in 22 years.

Formula One | Max Verstappen won the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, after world championship leader Oscar Piastri crashed out in the first lap – while Lando Norris failed to take advantage, finishing in seventh place.

The front pages

The Guardian leads with “Starmer declares UK recognition of Palestine as independent state”. The Financial Times has “UK, Canada and Australia recognise Palestine as an independent state.” The Mirror quotes the prime minister in its headline with “The best hope for peace”. The Times leads with Israel’s response with “Palestine recognition ‘great prize for Hamas’”, while the Mail has “Hamas claims victory after Starmer hands out a ‘prize for terrorism’”.

The Telegraph reports on the latest from Reform: “Farage: I’ll kick out hundreds of thousands”. Finally the Sun leads with “Elite soldier shot 7 times in live ammo mix-up”.

Today in Focus

What happens when you stop weight loss jabs?

Science editor Ian Sample talks through the dilemma facing more than a million people in the UK as the cost of the jabs jumps

Cartoon of the day | Edith Pritchett

The Upside

A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad

A sewage farm may seem an unlikely bird haven but the Western Treatment Plant on Melbourne’s outskirts has become one of Australia’s richest bird habitats. It’s home to more than 300 species – including endangered brolgas and the critically endangered orange-bellied parrot.

With 200 lagoons and marshes, the 105 sq km site treats more than 200bn litres of sewage each year. Its nutrient-rich waters, a byproduct of this process, provide food for insects, vegetation and migratory shorebirds – making it a crucial refuge in drought years and a model for wetland conservation globally. Its birdlife has drawn birdwatchers from around the world.

For conservation officer Cody McCormack and local “Bird Michael” Livingston, it’s both a workplace and a wonderland: a reminder of how even the most unlikely places can become havens for wildlife.

Bored at work?

And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.